Thursday, November 26, 2015
[UVXY] update
I'm sticking with the deep vee second model provided in the backlink. I just see that whole move up into the 90s as a motive deal which occurred in conjunction with my long awaited 500 point down day on the DJIA indicator. That was some real bonafide panic selling and we had to expect a deep vee 2nd wave given the history of success of the buy the dip strategy all this time. Of course, a lower low than green C blows this model up and is a clear stop loss point. I'm planning to add more here on the short trading day tomorrow.
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2 comments:
Captain, you probably shouldn't post this but betting against this bull market (long before I found your blog) has been extremely fucking costly and frustrating. The market's ability to extend and maintain elevated levels (which is suicide for Vix long) has been remarkable. Particularly given the macroeconomic data and leverage globally. I am truly now a believer of the the market's ability to remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent. I know wealthy friends and famies that juice this country thru tax or Medicaid benefits. I don't blame them because our government is inefficient, ineffective, and has policies which have holes allowing this behavior. Unfortunately im the dumb money trying to bet against it using leveraged long Vix products using after tax earnings which if i win I must pay a 36% short term gain but if I lose, gotta carry only max $3K loss. Fucked up game. I'm an immigrant that no longer believe in this country's ability to be the land of opportunity as my father found it.
Your natural reaction to above might be to lean on EW principals but IMO no one expected a now labeled wave 3 of some sort on August 23-26. Did you honestly ride that wave up? But this isn't about EW. I'm bearish on out country due to behavior of our population, government policies, and monetary policy. All in on UVXY on Friday. Happy Thanksgiving!
Hi Anonymous,
First, there is no reason to hide your comment, it is correct on many fronts. At the same time it is exactly the sentiment one would find at the end of the trend.
As for riding UVXY up during the recent triple, I didn't catch every penny of it for being cautious but I easily made up for all past UVXY antes I had paid and then some. It's all well documented in the blog if you just go back and read using the backlinks. And none of it was done using fundamentals because as you say its all a fake manipulated piece of crap game. But the manipulators are not immune from herding behavior and so the EW principle still applies.
If you walk through the backlinks you will get to this post where my model predicted the exact bottom of UVXY:
http://economati.blogspot.com/2015/07/uvxy-update_89.html
I'm not smart enough to make this up on my own yet there is is.
I will say that UVXY and all the other triples with time value are not for the non trader. They will eat your eyes out if you try to buy and hold. I'd written this many times and if you are going to play in the big leagues you cannot ignore these warnings. Also, I think most people, as I have said many times, should now be cost averaging into metals and miners. There will be more volatility and so purchasing over time will get you in at a good average price for the much higher market that will exist within a year.
So if you have not had good luck playing UVXY then go long the metals and miners in the certain knowledge that we are much closer to a major bottom than any kind of top.
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