[AMZN] update

In the backlink I called a significant peak @$570.  Of course, the shares are higher than than today, but the call was still correct for a trader.  The call was made at the red horizontal and nearly immediately the shared collapsed $110 which was ~20%.   So I would call that a significant peak even though I was looking for more downside.  The herd simple decided to turn the move into a rising wedge. 

But now the stock is going straight up and as I have shown many times in the past, that is usually the kiss of death for shares.  How much longer can it go up?  Well, nobody knows but it has now breached the top rail of the rising wedge so if it comes falling back down below that top wedge rail again then you can only expect a WMT or M like retracement.  These exponential moves just don't hold.  A $200 collapse is now on deck, minimum.

By the way, that rapid pullback that occurred after I made my post has the form of GOE and GOE are like HT in my experience - they are penultimate in the wave.  So I do think we are on the 5th wave of the current wave.  Now, the current wave could be W3 which is why I would start looking at only a $200 retracement as a first order of business.  But it could also be WC and so I would watch how the waves fall from these levels.  Do they fall as a 3 or as a 5?




Zooming in on the 5th wave of this rising wedge, we have the action below.  That gap which was able to take out the top rail is a marker for the 3rd of 3rd of C.  When this thing stops going up it is going to deflate rapidly.



Zooming way in to just look at blue C, the count justifies a move to the top of the red circle shown above over the next couple of days but the reversal of this is likely to be sudden as shown below.  The whole retail sector is beginning to tumble.  It makes sense that this will eventually catch up to even the Wall St darling Amazon.  The wave count suggests that the peak, an even more significant peak than the model predicted in the last post, could come within days.