Avi's recent MarketWatch article is telling. He essentially says that the herd has a river to cross but it cannot decide on whether the current bank which the herd leaders now stand at will be the one to make the plunge yet or whether the herd leaders should go on down to the next opening to reconsider. EWI is similarly backed off of the "market must go to Hell immediately" theme because the recent bout of bullishness smashed their count in the major indices even though the bearish count still looks reasonable for the junior indices. Avi also knows that the leaders of the market do not have forever to decide. More and more of the herd arrive at the bank behind the leaders each day and unless they get out of there soon the sheer weight of the followers will push the leaders into the river and they will be committed to the crossing.
Just exactly like the wildebeests in Africa during the migrations.
Below is the chart from the backlink on the left presented side by side with current actual on the right. The model held quite nicely this time. What I don't know is whether the 5th wave is actually in yet or if the recent bottom was only 3 of 5 of 5. There are mixed signals here which are essentially the same mixed signals being perceived by Avi and EWI. The BBRY chart will clue us in over the next few weeks just like Avi says, perhaps much sooner.
The recent action has also opened up another potential outcome as shown below. This one is interesting in that a rally from current price to the approximate E wave peak of $11.30 represents a significant percentage move of 58% over the next several weeks.
Zooming in to the 60 minute chart below, after forming the owl within the green circle, we got a retracement to the 50 fib in what currently counts as W3 or WC. So this is now at a critical juncture. From $6 to current could be 5 up with subsequent 3 back or it could be a-b-c up and now working on 3 of 1 down. Note also that the current rally coincided with the market rally from Oct. So this is just trading with markets now. If markets are going down I suspect this will too and vice versa.
Unless futures are down big time on Monday I will be loading up on this with tight stops. A move above the 38.2 fib likely means that the next wave up is upon us. A gap down says stay away for now. Long time readers will know that I am bullish on BBRY for the long term. They had a corrupt CEO that just milked the shit out of the company but fortunately they got rid of his useless ass while the company still had a monster wad of cash. And for a tech, much less a "failed" tech, there is no doubt that BBRY has an outsized cash hoard: 1.7 billion net of debt. This is a shitload of money to have in the kitty for a company that the market essentially wrote off already.
The new CEO tried to sell the company but could not so he immediately put a stop to the bleeding by laying off a ton of workers thus cutting bleed while also sending a signal to socialist Canadian workers (RIMM/BBRY is Canadian) that a new sheriff was in town.
The result of the new CEO is starting to show up in analyst opinions such as this one. But of course, fundamentals are unknown and unknowable so we have to watch the chart for clues.
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