Zooming in on the chart above the red was original model, cyan turns out to be actual so far.
Real time snapshot is below. Red is only 55% likely at this point, blue is 45%. If this fills the gap collectively, short the crap out of it. VW has very, very big problems and with the new conservative wave taking over we cannot expect governments to go lightly here. VW will be lucky if some execs don't see prison time on this along with many billions in fines and penalties and customer support charges. Governments will make sure Vdub does not get to stiff its customers on this deal. This is not a 1 year and we are back kind of deal. This could sink the company and at the least it will be in the toilet for a decade. Vdub will be made an example of what happens to irresponsible corporations who abuse the public trust.
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