[UVXY] update

Per the backlink, I was expecting more upside here if for no other reason than the DJIA had not done even a 38.2 fib retracement from the peak.  However, I did sell into the close today.  The reason is that we are at or near the end of the 3rd wave.  But it could also be a C and so I decided to take nice profits here and then wait for it to peak on Monday (could go as high as $39 or even $40) but will likely eventually pull back a-b-c per the red model. 

Now, a gap up on Monday and I will think hard about changing my tune.  That will suggest that the count is different and more bullish than I currently believe.  But if we just get 3 waves back to ~$33.50 then I'll dive back in and be looking of for a small 5th (which could always extend).  I will also say that I'm still quite short this market with a lot of puts.  Some expire in Jan 2016 which are in deep trouble (like my GE puts and intel puts) but I also bought the Jan 20 2017 MCD 70 puts (and a good number of them at at) when I made my topping call on MCD.  The important part of this is that even though MCD shares trade higher than the day I purchased those puts, the puts are up more than 12% from my buy point.  So being early didn't kill me this time.  This rarely happens that stock price is up but so are puts.  It's like the earthquake happened but the tsunami hasn't hit shore yet.

Well, we are going to know very soon next week if its a tsunami or just farts in the bathtub.  If this ends up pulling back a-b-c to the level of prior 4th and then goes 1 wave higher then that is a motive wave which marks a trend reversal which I suspect will result in a higher high for UVXY than the last high.

By the way, if you didn't already sell into 5 waves up of black 3, feel free to move your stops up to just below the level of black 1 in the chart below.  A fall down there without first putting in a 5th wave spells disaster for UVXY.