Saturday, October 17, 2015

[AMZN] update - calling a significant peak at $570.76

At the backlink I provided the model below.  Price target should be to kiss the upper rail from below as shown but I did let the unicorn horn sway me into thinking the peak could be in place. 


Current snapshot is below.  That unicorn horn did mark a big peak - AMZN dropped more than 10% from that point before finding its legs to come back on up and peak into that upper red rail.  Maybe its already done, maybe it has $5 left in it but soon folks.  But I think this is very, very likely to end up being a DDT which, when it has the current form, I call an owl.  I'm looking for a $200 plunge from current prices. 


As usual, because of the predictive nature of EW and especially the mode in which I employ them, few are saying anything bad about the shares right now. Below are the analyst opinions and no analyst has a target of $370 on the shares.  Only Argus has them downgraded based on valuation recently.  But even they want you to hold this toxic crap.




I am being clear here: the charts say sell, period.  I'll be looking closely at the Jan 2017 $400 puts which last sold for $22.60.  So 1 contract for $2.2k is about the right amount of exposure for me on this.  I can see this being a 3-4 bagger easy.  Perhaps more.



3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi captain, do you still hold this put? AMZN hits 640 today.

The Captain said...

Fortunately I didn't follow through on these. I have been playing commodities on the long side swinging with metals using JNUG and JDST and effectively shorting via UVXY.

Anonymous said...

Very fortunate captain! I still think AMZN market cap is ridiculous .... do you think that Jan2017 400 put is still a viable play?

Been following your JNUG and JDST plays, I got out of JDST today and looking to get into JNUG soon; also added UVXY to position from yesterday.

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