[BXK] update: yet unrepentently short. [UVXY]

In the backlink I provided the model below.  It allowed for either an immediate move down or one thrust higher to the 50 fib and the level of the prior 4th before reversing.  I assure you that any resemblance to male anatomy of the model was completely innocent at the time of writing but now in reviewing it perhaps it was  Freudian reference to what I believe is about to happen to "longs".



All I do know is that the markets are again Dowphoric after the monster moves which have been relentlessly up over the past 3 weeks.  Today Yahoo reports that the S+P is again green for the year.  And the crowd goes wild...

But the BKX did not go wild and in fact it closed at almost exactly the 50 fib today.   That, dear sports fans, is a sell signal according to my EW model.  Could it go higher?  Yes, you know that it could.  I'm not here to say it can't.  I am here to say it likely won't and I bought more UVXY into the close as a result.  My stops are already set on this.



Speaking of UVXY, I did buy a small position into the close yesterday per the backlink but I decided against using tight stops because of the chance that BKX would hit the 50 fib.  That's why today's purchase was "more".

As a result of that atypical last minute model-based decision I avoided getting stopped out by the gap down this AM and now that position is slightly green.  My primary model is for a gap above resistance on Monday but the secondary would be for a re-test of the lower rail followed by a strong move up per the blue path.  Stops for the entire position are now in place at @25.50.

Odd, folks.  EW is about odds and not certainties.  But I am certain that if you run without stops too many times that you will end up poorer.  I am also certain that if you show discipline and patience that you will win in the fullness of time simply because so many others are playing who have neither patience nor discipline.  Today's markets have nothing to do with "investing", it's all about gambling against your fellow citizen.  We all have some liberal in us and this is my liberal vice.  I like to gamble if I think I have the edge.  Like Internet porn, I think the conservative wave will, in the coming years, will drive a reduction in online gambling of all types, including the stock markets.  People will revert to working and saving in order to fund retirement instead of gambling to that end.