Current actual is below. My model caught the exact bottom this time. Part of this is certainly luck but it happens way too often to just write it off as "very lucky". Thinking people have to begin to see that there is an order to this apparent chaos and that while not perfect, EW analysis is about the best predictive tool out there. It is not a crystal ball by any means but it greatly increases your odds of calling the turns relative to gut feel. The data, as documented by clear chart models in this blog on many occasions, is clear in this regard.
Having said that, we should be reaching a near term peak which carries significant risk of being a C wave, likely C of a 4th. This would be in line with Avi's call for gold to head one more wave lower. If commodities have one more wave down, so will Russia. But after that all bearish sentiment will be priced in and with a new bull market in M+M and commodities Russia will do very, very well. I predict that Russia's position on the global stage is at or near a multi-decade bottom right along with commodities. When commodity prices are weak, who cares what commodity providers think? But when prices go up, who doesn't begin to kiss their asses? This is just herding 101.Note that in the model below the black arrow shows a 4th wave that could not reach back into the region of wave 1. Now the blue arrow is pointing to a similar decision point. If RSX can break back up into blue 1 then the Sept 2014 bottom was likely the bottom and traders and longer term investors should buy the subsequent dip with both hands.
I predict that Russia is just about done assimilating its 1990s collapse and is, as a nation, heading into a new bull market. I foresee Russia beginning to stand up to the USA, perhaps in concert with China. This does not have to be in a warlike manner and in fact war would be a very stupid option for Russia and China. Instead, they need to simply demand that China be given a seat at the adult table in all things: the money supply, Gx membership, etc. At that point, Russia and China could band together as a real force to be reckoned with.
Russia and China have a lot of synergies. Russia is a massive commodities exporter and China knows how to turn all that into products. China knows how to make good quality low cost computer hardware and Russia far outshines China in terms of software prowess. I'm sorry China, nobody is good at everything and your software and firmware, in general, sucks. You just don't ever seem to "get it" on that front. Chinese HW + Russian SW+firmware (FW) is the best of both worlds and this is what is needed in order to win in the new economic frontier driven by the Internet of Things (IoT), AI, robotics, etc.
So, Russia and China, avoid war with the USA at all costs. The God of US oligarchs is Apollo. I wish I had time to take you down that rabbit hole but you would not believe it if I told you anyhow. Suffice it to say that nobody is going to beat the USA in war and you don't need to do so in order to get your deserved rewards and standing in the world. Just keep providing value to the rest of the world and your status will increase in locked step with the global herd. At some point, the world will just tell Apollo to sit the fuck down and shut the fuck up because the world is getting on with the business of living. Don't play into Apollo's hands by agreeing to war no matter the provocation.
I know it is maddening to see arrogant US dickhead leadership strut around and intimidate everyone with the racket of war. But use your heads (like you have been doing). Play it firm but cool headed. Show the world that Apollo is a hothead and a windbag who consumes more than he produces and pays for the excess consumption with fake money that will eventually go broke. Expose US corruption including the treasonous events that occurred on 9-11. Turn world herd opinion away from Apollo. Push Apollo back on his heels using words and logic because you damned sure will fail if you try to use physical force. The best revenge will be to live well instead of dragging your people into another needless and costly war. One more thing: the less of a dickhead your leaders are in their own right, the less that they have to prove Apollo is a bigger dickhead. It's all relative. Do good works and stop repressing your own people and Apollo will suddenly look overbearing and tyrannical by comparison. Your task of ascension on the world stage is only made more difficult by failing in this task.
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