[BKX] update

In the backlink I provided the model below.



But what if this moves up even higher tomorrow?  Start of a new bull market?  No, I think not.  Too many other indices have already done 5 down, especially the small caps.  Also, I don't see how commodities enter a great depression without those who manufacture things using commodities also experiencing severe issues.

So if BKX moves up again tomorrow then I suspect that the count above is wrong and the more obvious count is below.  In short, instead of the recent 5 down being 1 of 5, perhaps it was the whole darned 5th wave.  In that case the logical retracement to the prior 4th would be in the red area shown.  If markets are really weak, sometimes the wave falls short of the 38.2,




So if we zoom in on just the retracement in might be already done or it might push for the 38.2 fib.  If it moves up in the AM to the 38.2 then it's likely that we get a morning reversal and that is always a good sign that a trend has changed.  We'll be better able to gauge whether this is wave 3 down or still working on wave 5 of 1 by the ferocity of the move.

If BKX goes down, the DJIA goes down.