[AAPL] update

At the time of posting the backlink, AAPL was trading at $113.45 and my model expected a bounce to "the $118-$119 range before turning down hard."

Following that post the shares peaked at $116.70 and now appear to be working on 3 of 1 of 3.  If I'm right about this, I expect one more move down per the red line into lime 1, then a 3 wave dead cat bounce into lime 2 and then a rapid collapse down to a lower low that will make Steve Jobs roll over in his grave and curse the day he ever met tim or steve or jack or whatever his forgettable replacement is called.  Nobody is predicting this right now. In fact, the average analyst thinks MSFT will enjoy more than 7% earnings growth from now until next September.  And the worst case, the most bearish analyst calls for a reduction of about 9%.  Even that horrible number will prove too optimistic IMO.

 

All I can say is that I will mos def be looking at picking up some puts on AAPL shares around mid month if this pattern continues to hold.


In any case, expect the $COMPX and S+P500 to lead the DJIA down.