TVIX: very likely near major turning point (along with the broader markets).

I'm still modeling this as a "walk away in May year", and folks, it's May.  Let's see if the TVIX chart can give us any clues about the conditions of the broader markets going forward.  I haven't mentioned TVIX in a while simply because the chart broke down from my prior trigger point and has been uninteresting since.  But now it might well be time to look at it again.  After all, nothing goes up or down forever and the broader markets have not been the picture of strength of late.

I've been suspecting for some time now that TVIX would finish up as an ending diagonal but I have never gotten it quite right.  I've gotten stopped out several times for small losses on it and then just decided to go trade JDST and JNUG instead for awhile.  But I have not given up on TVIX because when the markets do begin their breakdown it might not be the fastest mover possible but it will fast enough.  All you have to do is look at January to see what this thing is capable of doing, and that was just a corrective wave.  If the bottom really is in for TVIX right now, the short term gains will be very fat.

So why now?  First off, I see what I am about to discuss as the most compelling bottoming model I have put out for TVIX to date.  The ending diagonal aspect of it should be obvious to any observer.

What I think is compelling is that if the ~$7.85 peak was wave 4 then we should see an a-b-c in the form of 5-3-5 down into a lower low 5th wave, preferably in the form of a throw under.  That is exactly what I see below.

Zooming into just what I am modeling as C of 5, we see 5 clear waves down (blue 1-5).  There is parallelism between blue 2-4 and 1-3.  Blue 5 came down to nearly touch the blue 1-3 line.  Blue 1 is about the same length as blue 5 and blue 3 was extended.  Blue 2 is alternation compared to blue 4.  Blue 5 is a nice looking wave in and of itself with 5 subwaves, parallelism and alternation within its structure.

Off the bottom we see 5 small waves.  That looks like wave 1 up.  Then a 3 wave pull back and at the close TVIX looks poised for a gap up tomorrow into a 3rd wave.  A breakdown below blue 5 negates this count but I think the odds of that happening are very low.  Again, nothing goes up or down forever and the wave count of TVIX suggests that a significant market downturn is going to begin tomorrow.  I give this model very high odds of 95%.  Next resistance is at $6.25 and if it blows past that then the odds increase even more that a significant, if not major, market top has been put in.

As I have written many times, when you see the DJIA lose 500+ points in a single day (perhaps even 750 or more), run the Hell away because it will mean the herd has mos def decided to turn south.  Don't be too surprised if that day comes within the next 1-2 weeks.  The perfect setup for a market collapse would be initial wave down into June, then a summer rally to a lower high, then Q3 is collapseville with a massive 3rd wave down playing of that sees panic selling across the board.