Thursday, May 15, 2014

DJIA making small pauses at all support levels and then smashing them.

Lots of people I talk to think chart analysis is a bunch of voodoo hoodoo.  I don't blame them.  There are so many people out there doing it and so many of them are clueless.  Take the case of someone whose TA I have challenged in these pages in the past: professional trader Sam Collins.  Just yesterday, as I was calling a top on the markets, old Sam wrote that the new top signals a strong economy for the year.  Too many of these chartists simply extrapolate past behavior forward.  They think that trees grow to the sky.  And when the markets are puking their guts out (i.e. Dow 4000 or lower) he and those like him will be telling everyone to sell (right when I will be piling back in).  Time will tell who is right about this but I think we will soon see a 500 point one day drop in the Dow which is really going signal to the herd that "buy the dip, risk on" mentality is no longer a winning play.  Collapsing the Ponzi value out of the financial markets is right in line with my views about a new conservatism taking over.  Expect a new conservative focus on DIVIDEND INVESTING as an investing theme, not the more liberal share price appreciation (greater fool theory) investing (gambling) as has been the play for several decades now.

By the way, I bought 5 contracts of jnj Jan '16 $65 puts for .90 today.  Time to cost average into a deep position of put-leaps.  Risk insurance is waaaay underpriced these days.  There is a great depression in stock insurance (puts) right now and that is going to change very rapidly IMO.

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