TRX update - critical technical juncture

In my Memorial Day post on TRX I cautioned that

1. the a-b-c which I was expecting into wave 2 was now more than 3 waves.
2. it could morph into an ending diagonal for wave 2.

Per today's chart below, the lower rail has been broken down an now the chart is at a critical juncture.  It must either decide to break back up into the channel and then break out the top channel or this could be viewed as a kiss good bye of the lower rail leading to lower prices.  I can't predict the future and neither can anyone else.  But by setting triggers and sticking to them we can increase our odds in this big casino where many of the games seem to be fixed by the house.  TRX must break back up into that channel and soon or confidence will be lost.  A break below the prior low is obviously a sell signal and we are not far from it.

The potential for an inclining double bottom still exists here but don't fight the ticker if that throw under cannot break back up into the channel.  If it falls back to $1.68 or lower then chances quickly fade that a breakout is going to happen.  Ending diagonals usually end with a vee bottom indicating panic selling and capitulation and this chart is not doing that.

The fear in metals and miners is that already ridiculously low metals prices can get ridiculously lower.  For example, if the silver chart turns out to be an ending diagonal per the model below (a possibility I have discussed many times before in these pages), then each of the waves should be a-b-c in nature.  You can see this in the transition between 1 to 2, clearly see it again between 2 to 3, again in 3-4.  Each of these is supposed to be 5-3-5.  That includes the transition from 4 to 5.  But if we look at the chart, it seems that we had 5 waves down to the bottom of the channel.  What if this was just A?  Furthering this position is the a-b-c back up which could have formed B.  If this is true then we are just starting for form C.   At this point the trend is still down and so that has to be respected.  If the chart can break back up into the channel soon then more thought would be called for but until it does, the safe play is to watch for signs that C is playing out.  If that turns out to be the case, conserve cash and wait for the 5 waves down to finish and then get greedy about jumping into JNUG.  Metals are not going to zero.  Miners are not going to zero.  Dividend payers will always be worth something.