Monday, May 28, 2018

The Deep State is the beginning of the end for the Global Debt Ponzi

I predicted years ago, and repeated that prediction many times since, that the end times for the Global Debt Ponzi/peak elitism/peak liberalism (call it what you will) would be marked by the fall of many powerful "made men".   The sleepy population, so the prediction went, would somehow wake up and begin to care. 

Our organized criminal cartel known as Big Government depends upon and requires the people to be distracted sleepy sheeple because the crap they have been pulling is so blatant that it requires a form of mass hypnosis lest the people rise up in unison and kill them in the streets.  I'm specifically referring to the twin tower tragedy conspiracy known as "911" but that was the visible tip of the iceberg.  The base of the iceberg runs deep, hidden from the view of most.  Out of sight, out of mind for the masses who, while living off of the great lifestyle afforded to the USA by ever expanding exponential debt, didn't care what others were doing as long as they got theirs.

While the debt level continues to rise, the debt driven prosperity has certainly peaked for the masses.  This is why they are suddenly waking up and it is exactly the reason why I said they would wake up.  The dopamine driven haze that kept the herd from action and in fact beat down anyone who suggested that action be taken is wearing off, and fast.  All of the fake hope that people had was bought at the expense of $21.1 trillion in US national debt, and counting.  And this is happening while interest rates are still very low.  Wait until the debt Ponzi goes into collapse which will be marked by rapidly rising interest rates.  Not to 4% or 6% but to 9,10, 12%.  That's when the debt clock begins to get scary because in addition to a massive 21 trillion handle for the base debt, the additional debt begins to go up at a scary rate.  Today the debt rises at the rate of about $1 million per 40 seconds.  Within a couple years it will be screaming up many times faster, perhaps 40 times faster to $1 million per second. 

The five basic stages of a debt Ponzi are:
  1. The feel good stage.  This is where every social and financial problem is solved by throwing money at it from the national credit card.  High unemployment?  No problem!  Start a Keynesian dig a hole and then fill it program and pay for it with "the card".  Slow economy?  Again, swipe the card and it goes away.  Falling markets?  You guessed it: use the card to buy stuff, even stocks themselves.  You can tell we are in this stage by that $1 of debt buys more than $1 of GDP.  Over unity of debt spend relative to benefit gives stupid people the world over the idea that not only is debt based consumption a smart thing, but rather also that it is sustainable.
  2. The big plateau.  This is where debt spend results in unity (1:1) improvements in the economy.
  3. The point of diminishing returns.  This is where $1 in debt spend no longer generates unity GDP benefit.
  4. Payday for the piper.  This is where the debt load becomes a net negative on the economy.  Note that this is no longer a reference to diminishing returns on new debt spend.  This is where the debt service actually subtracts from the GDP so that people have to be happy consuming less than they actually produce in real time simply because part of current production is needed to pay for the overconsumption of past years.  It is this stage where things get Argentina-like.  Those at the top of the food chain still muddle through because they have a buffer but those at the bottom of the food chain who are marginal to the economy are hit the first and by far the worst.  In response, government begins attacking profitable businesses in order to make up the shortfalls not because its fair but because they have the apparent ability to pay.  We are entering inning 6 of stage 4 right now as can be seen by the beginning of corrupt shit like Seattle head tax.  In Argentina all the big businesses were eventually vilified and then nationalized in the name of national security (AKA the elite trying to stay in power).
  5. Collapse of the con.  This is the end game where the people rise up and make sweeping changes to the way that the elite of yesteryear were running things.  Maybe its the beginning of brighter days but maybe its the beginning of fascism, Hitler 2.0 so to speak.
The stages above are nonlinear.  It takes a while for confidence to build but only a fraction of the time for confidence to be lost.  So, 90% of the time is spent in the first 4.5 stages and 10% of the time in stage 4.5 and later. 

The recent flap about how federal law enforcement agencies aligned with deep state forces ganged up on the Trump campaign and on the Trump presidency are major signs of the end times for the Global Dept Ponzi because they have the power to convince the rank and file of the outright criminal behavior that is now rampant in big government.  In other words, the people finally lose confidence in the con men that have been running the show.  Once the confidence is gone, the con is gone and the people finally realize that the emperor is wearing no clothes, or per Buffett, skinny dipping when the tide goes out.

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