Tuesday, August 8, 2017

Mish provides an interesting chart from Hussman

I found Mish's presentation of John Hussman's insights about stock market price to revenue ratios interesting from an Elliott wave perspective.  The article that I refer to is here.  In it, Mish points out John Hussman's ongoing bearishness even as markets continue to climb.  Hussman famously predicted the potential for an 83% plunge in tech stocks BEFORE the dot bomb collapse.  The Nasdaq 100 went on to lose 83% from its peak before finally bottoming.

Hussman's main point is that back in 2000 the bubble, as indicated by his price to revenue models (i.e. historical valuations of "normalcy"), was mainly in tech stocks.  Prior to the 2007 market peak his analysis was saying that all stocks were generally overvalued enough to incur risk of 55% losses from the peak and we know what happened into the early months of 2009.

Now he's saying that the S+P 500 can expect a collapse of 63% from current value based on current price to revenue models.

As usual, however, the trick is knowing when to exit the Ponzi.  Exit too soon and you leave money on the table.  Exit too late and you get Madoffed.  It's really as simple as that.  I have proven over and over again that a good deal of insight can be gleaned from simply applying the Elliott wave principle to any chart.  The chart below has a structure and a wave count that should be of great interest to anyone with money in these markets.  Sign up for my Elliott wave chart analysis service and find out what I'm showing my subscribers relative to this chart and many others that agree on the future direction of US markets.

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