Saturday, November 29, 2014

[SPWR] update

This was my initial topping call on SPWR after having called the prior low @3.77 to within a few pennies.  Here is the most recent update on the topping call.  Note the right hand model which expected that if the chart could break back into the channel then it would go all the way to  the top of it (and then with perhaps a throwover).  That is in fact what happened.

The original topping call contained a sell off price target in the low 20s which was really intended to mean "to about the level of the prior 4th".  Now that the model is playing out I can refine it and the new price target is between the level of the prior 4th (~$20.50) the 61.8% fib (~$18.28).

What I do not know is whether the pull back will be an a-b-c or 1-2-3-4-5.  In other words, the pause that refreshes or a mania collapse back down to below the $4 level where this massive price run began (or some kind of inclining double bottom to perhaps $4-$6).  In other words do we get a deflationary collapse or some massive selling and then Yellen throws in the towel on QE abstinence.  If the fed ever begins printing money again, the market will finally know that it's either print or crash.  Thus, massive inflation could finally show up at the doorstep of the USA (something which I have always believed would happen AFTER the deflationary crash was complete).

All fiat currency is worthless at the end of the day. It's all un-backed worthless $hit and only a fool trusts his retirement funds to it.

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