I don't claim to know the future but I do have some idea how the herd moves and so I do have some clue about the odds of the next move and the next move of the DJIA looks like a swoon to at least 17600 with the high potential to continue plummeting much, much lower. This looks like an a-b-c peak of the expanding wedge followed by a very motive looking grind downward to support and then a 3 wave move back up to about the level of the 38.2% fib. IF this model is correct, we should see rapid selling action take hold on Monday and it could include a small gap down or a much more significant one as shown in the model below. Again, I think the odds support holding TVIX long over the weekend because of this.
Friday, November 21, 2014
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