As is typical with these things, the final model usually turns out to be obvious for those who are patient enough to let it play out. The model below is pretty compelling IMO. I like the alternation and the internal 3 wave structure. While it is not my primary model in this case, the 5th wave often kisses the trend line that is drawn between 1 and 3. Also, at the month scale, that 5th wave up of the expanding wedge looks like one long motive wave to the top of the channel and then a small pullback and now a breakout. It could be that the first move up was A, then B and now still working on a C which could carry to the 18400-18600 range to kiss that top rail before reversing suddenly.
If this occurs, it should happen rapidly because it is a C wave. The A wave in that count was already very aggressive and so I would not expect the C wave to meander.
The main reason this ~18500 target is not my primary model is that MSFT already appears to be breaking down based on no news. Still, nobody knows the future. All we have are models and odds. But we do know that this is a debt driven bull market and that means fundamentally that it is a fake one which will unwind rapidly once it begins to unwind because the stocks were essentially borrowed using credit, not bought with money (not even with fake money!).
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