I want to update my previous model on Peak Credit but before I do I want to make it clear that I'm not just doing this as some kind of academic exercise. There is a clear purpose behind my madness. I have a very clear view of what is going on in the global economy. Unfortunately, people don't want to hear the boil down because it hits their ears wrong. It's like saying "fuck". It kind of shocks the listener even though it's just a word. The boil down is that the US is running a global debt Ponzi.
Now, I fully understand when people don't want to hear that or when they think "who does this guy think he is to write outlandish stuff like this"? This is the natural herd reaction which generally takes the form of "I really don't know what is true one way or the other but this guy is rocking the boat". But I know what I'm talking about because I have thousands of hours of study and thought into it. This is not something I think about once in a while or always at a topical, headlines or stock movement level. I'm always trying to learn more truth (which is different than learning more academic "facts").
In any case, the only sure way I know that people will begin to listen is when they see someone turn out to be right in some kind of visible way. That is what I am doing with this peak credit tracking. I want to show not only that EW can help predict the peak credit but also that peak credit and peak stocks occur at the same time. The reason this is important is that any Ponzi scheme needs ever increasing amounts of its energy source in order to continue working. There is no plateau built into a Ponzi. Once the growth stops, all that is left is the risk and taking risk without getting any reward is for morons. Showing that peak credit and peak asset prices go hand in hand ought to be good evidence to future skeptics who will blame luck or coincidence for my insight when in fact it is just suspension of disbelief and acknowledging the corrupt intrinsic nature of man.
So in any case, here is the chart from the prior post:
Here is the recent chart. It now sits within the red circle target of the previous post and has since finished what looks to be a full motive wave count. It would be easier to tell for sure if there was more than weekly resolution but it looks like a pretty good count.
Friday, November 14, 2014
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