Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Not sure I like the JNUG chart this AM

The JNUG 15 minute chart is below.  The bounce to $4.50 pointed to by the top arrow could easily be modeled as a wedge and to me that smells like a C meaning corrective.  Then after what could be interpreted as 5 waves down to $3.20, we get something that could so far be an a-b-c back to the level of the prior 4th in the AM pretrade.  Sniff sniff.  Something smells wrong here.  It might just be the smell of paranoia but I have to live within the data I have, not what I hope it might turn out to be.  Hope is not a trading strategy.

If something looks like a trap then I generally do well to treat it as one.  So I just went to the sidelines on JNUG premarket at an average of $3.66.  If I'm wrong about this, I'll let the chart prove to me during the normal trading hours. 

Usually if this ETF opens green its closes green.  An intraday reversal in color suggests strength in the direction of the close.  If this thing breaks down below yesterday's gap that formed into the close then if I were holding the shares (which I no longer am thanks to today's premarket profit taking) I would fear another beat down into the 2s before a real bottom arrives.  But if it starts to form impulsive waves starting this AM then I will become more comfortable jumping back in.  So, at $3.75 or higher I am interested again.


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