$COMPX update: is the rally over??

In this very recent post I showed the triangle in $COMPX forming and expected a move up into the channel.  Well, it did that on Friday.  And TVIX did respond by falling as low as $2.57.  But the $COMPX chart is looking quite weak. It did 5 waves up to kiss the top rail and then pulled back ostensibly to get a running start for the 3rd wave breakout.  But the action was so weak that I wonder if this won't turn out to be a short stroke 5th.  During the AH trade, TVIX gained.  So someone is not expecting a 3rd wave breakout and I have noted more than once in the past that the TVIX trading in the AH generally points to the direction it will take the next day.

The TVIX indicator is telling me that we get no $COMPX breakout on Monday.   While time will tell, if this fails to break out and then falls through the lower rail and then to a level lower than e of 4, buy TVIX with both hands because the crash has most likely just begun.  This is about as high a confidence call as I can make because of the massive expanding wedge that is in place. It shows that great volatility is in play.

Whether $COMPX can break out next week to peak below 4700 or whether the bulls are just too tired to take another step forward, the crash is likely going to begin next week.  Too many things are adding up.  The dems lost the election and the new GOPs are far more conservative than they used to be because they see it is resonating with the people.  Gold is breaking out as a result and, as predicted in this post where I wrote, "I personally think EWI is going to have to change their gold count.  At the very, very least the recent bottom had to be 5 of A not 1 of 5 of A as they say.  At the best, the metals bear could be over.", EWI finally mentioned on Friday that the recent bottom could be the bottom of 5 of A.  I think there is no doubt about it given the the capitulation level of volume that I documented in these pages.  Besides, the juniors are already getting creamed in terms of sustainability of operations.  So it is becoming increasingly doubtful to me that any C wave will even occur.  @$750 per oz the entire gold mining industry would have to cease operations.  Nobody can produce that cheaply not even the biggest majors.  Not in an "all in" accounting of it.

Still, the crash is supposed to bring very bad things and no sector should be immune so I'm not making up my mind that it cannot happen.  But I am making up my my against the view that it MUST happen.  Wave counts, even from the best, can change in real time.

Bottom line is that I like JNUG and TVIX right now.  I like them a lot.  I'm just waiting to see what happens with $COMPX on Monday to see when to jump back into TVIX.  It should mos def be sometime next week.