LOL!
OK, small celebration is over. I bailed on JNUG at $4.43 after I saw 5 final waves transpire. I know I know, it sounds like bullshit but it really isn't. This is cut and pasted right from my Ameritrade screen. Quantity is blotted out.
The reason I will not hold it over the weekend is that I model that either 3 or C has completed. The next move should be down. Just my luck it will gap up on Monday into some wild unexpected pattern but the model (which is more important than gut feel or hope) says that more than likely it moves down in the premarket and then hits either the 38.2 (most likely) or the 50 fib before taking off again into wave 5.
Folks, please consider that as of now, it is only speculation that a new significant rally has begun for JNUG shares. Sure, most people would consider the move from $2.85 to $4.45 as already being significant but that is only for people who timed it perfectly. Most people who tried to hold this ball lightening took it up the assets and then got both hands cut off by the falling knife.
As you can see from the picture below, I model 3 waves up to have completed today. Hopefully on Monday we will see an orderly a-b-c retracement to the 38.2% fib. If that happens I will buy it with 3% stops. It might also go to the 50 fib. But it should not make it as low as the 61.8 fib lest it find itself in the territory of wave 1. If that happens, run away and sit on the sidelines until you see what's really going on. It could mean I am off by 1 wave in the count. This is not difficult to occur and so I am always extra careful at wave counts like this.
If the waves do pull back as shown in green or red and then take off to a higher high then the new rally is confirmed. Of course, that 5th of 1 wave will peter out and then end right back up at $4 into big wave 2. But following that pullback we should sky rocket and I mean sky rocket upwards into wave 3. So I plan to be all over this. Even a dead cat bounce will be serious percentage points after the ridiculous drubbing this ETF has taken over the past 4+ months. Even in the case where EWI is correct about this just being 1 of 5 of A, the rally should carry to $12. That is the level of the prior 4th. $15.39 is the 38.2% fib. $19.30 is the 50 fib. Take your pick; you do the percentage math!
I personally think EWI is going to have to change their gold count. At the very, very least the recent bottom had to be 5 of A not 1 of 5 of A as they say. At the best, the metals bear could be over.
Whatever you do, consider this: If we see 5 waves up (for example the red or green paths above) and then get a-b-c back to the prior 4th or the 38.2 (~$4.00), the odds are very, very high that the next wave up will be a 3rd and this is by far the best time to be in a stock. If you get that run up then you are deep in the green and you can afford to set loose stops (i.e. no lower than your buy price) while you watch this baby fly!
You saw how I carefully walked this down. You can see the 4th wave triangle on the chart in the $11-$12 range. Ask yourself this: Have you have made a three, four, five bagger trade before? Ever? Do you ever want to? Let me tell you, there is nothing like it. JNUG having gotten the piss beaten out of it like this is a GIFT. You have to expect volatility but that can be mitigated using simple wave counting techniques. You can limit your losses to a few percent while giving yourself a serious shot at hundreds of percent.
Good luck in your trades.
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