Sunday, November 2, 2014

Low level primary $COMPX model

This model calls for some follow through strength going into election day but with, at the very least, a trade-able correction after elections (potentially based on "surprise" GOP wins of historically liberal areas).  Whether that correction is just a small a-b-c down to ~4500 followed by a higher move is not known yet.  It really depends on whether the market wants to treat the recent 5 waves up as the whole 5th wave or whether it will be treated as 1 of 5.  Given the speed of the move I strongly suspect that it is weak handed momo players in it, not long term conviction buying.  How can any credible fund manager have any positive conviction when Greenspan is out there telling people that the balance of the federal reserve is a "tinder box"?  The implication is that they are out of gas to pump much more even if the market throws a taper tantrum (which we absolutely must expect to occur soon since Yellen has now been on the job > 6 months AND the QE ended as of October).

I'm hoping this final pump in the $COMPX does occur and that it does kick TVIX back down to $2.70 where again I hope to be able to buy it and then set tight stops just a few pennies below my buy point.


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