JDST fills gap. Bounce likely imminent.

JDST is the reverse of JNUG and I always like to look at both sides of the chart to see if anything revealing pops out.  Perhaps it did today.  Check out the chart below.  JDST seems to have filled a tiny gap that was open from late November.  The fact that it could not keep going will tell chartists (and trading software) that the herd is not ready to go further south yet.  In fact, the smart trader buys JDST at the open on Monday and sets stops at $22.39.  Why there?  Because the early October high was @ 22.40.  That wave will either turn out to be 1 or it will turn out to be A.  If the chart falls below $22.40 then we have our clear answer: it could not have been "1" since 4 cannot go into the range of 1.  You could also more conservatively set the break point for just below the gap (i.e. $23.10).

We don't know for sure how it will turn out but we do know that the gap was filled yet the current wave could not make it back down into the region of the 1st wave up.  That means it is still a valid 4th wave down.

We can also see that the decline had a definite a-b-c vibe to it.  This analysis completely jibes with my JNUG analysis.  So, I think JNUG gets a partial or full pullback of its recent gains in the coming week.  I sold out of JNUG today in anticipation of this.  As usual, I could be wrong, this is only a model, only your hairdresser knows for sure, etc.  But at least the decisions made on this blog are the result of thinking and analysis and a system as opposed to gut instinct, fear or greed.  These are the things that will eventually separate the winners from the losers in this big gambling game we call euphemistically call investing.