Sunday, November 9, 2014

Ferguson 2.0: The Indictment.... will they or won't they.

We are about to get another major test of how hard the liberals are now on the run.  This should be a biggee, the same level of indicator as Bundy Ranch.  At stake is whether or not the liberal police state is still intact or whether it is already toppling.  My long term view is clear: the rise of dishonest money paid for the rise of widespread dishonesty and corruption.  But with the global money supply in peak and now starting to contract (as measured by depressions in Greece, Spain, Italy and soon to be announced recessions in France and Germany and the UK) there is less money available to do things that are not economically sound. 

It's during times like these that conservatives who have been lame ducks for years suddenly seem to grow a pair and begin to crack down on the liberal agenda which includes global lawlessness.  Even perennial bad boy N. Korea is feeling the pinch as they suddenly release two prisoners because of suddenly being thrust into the global spotlight:  "In February, a U.N. Commission of Inquiry accused Pyongyang of human rights violations so egregious and widespread as to qualify as crimes against humanity. The commission report galvanized international resolve to act, including a pending U.N. resolution to refer North Korea and leader Kim Jong-un to the International Criminal Court.  The unprecedented and long-overdue international effort to confront North Korea on its human rights abuses startled the regime and led to frantic attempts to derail the process.  For the first time in 15 years, the North Korean foreign minister attended the U.N. General Assembly meeting, during which he defended the regime’s human rights record."

This is no different that a decades-dormant and apparently toothless SEC (Security Exchange Commission) which has been captured by Wall Street suddenly coming to life with unexpected energy and resolve.   It starts small but it begins to grow and become more pervasive rapidly.  Notice the use of "wake up" and "wake up call" in all of these articles?  Here's another one.  So it is clear that powerful agencies of good change have been in place for a long time.  They were fully capable of taking care of business yet they did not.  The reason?  For whatever reason, the herd just didn't feel the need to do it.  Maybe it was a case of everything flowing so nicely, don't rock the boat.  Maybe it was a case of "things suck but not bad enough to do anything about it right now".   Probably a little of both depending upon your socioeconomic situation.

And so pockets of corruption were ignored.  The herd just considered this part of the cost of getting by.  If you still don't see it, please watch this 20 second video.  The title of it is "2nd buffalo runs over his pal".  But that is misleading.  The victim wasn't run over, he was purposefully sacrificed.  He was just the cost of the rest of the herd being able to stop running.  That monster buffalo didn't have to run.  It and it's buddies could have fought.  They could tear those wolves to pieces.  But that is not the first reaction of the herd; that is the last reaction and the last resort.

From this link
“Men and nations behave wisely when they have exhausted all other resources.”
-- Abba Eban, an Israeli politician and diplomat. March 1967

And so that is my thesis.  The mood of the herd changes in waves like the seasons change.  The use of a fraudulent money supply has extended a season of prosperity longer than it should have normally gone and this has caused a distortion that will revert to the mean after a nasty undershoot.  All of these things I am linking are symptoms of the coming dismantling of unchecked global corruption, not the cause.  The real underlying cause of the cycles is the nature of man and perhaps the nature of the universe.  But the energy source for the wild distortion that occurred during this cycle was the fraudulent money supply.

And so, back to the near term test case of where we are in this mean reversion process: whether or not the Ferguson cop will be indicted by the Grand Jury.  This one is a very tough call for me because we are early in the mean reversion process.  My credit indicator hasn't even formally peaked yet.  But we did have the major milestone of the liberals getting killed in the recent elections and that is a huge and undeniable sign that change is upon us.  So, despite everyone in Ferguson worrying about mass riots, etc.  I'm going to hazard a prediction that the cop will be indicted.  Whether or not he is convicted is another matter.  But to not try the case at all in an open court is a liberal move and I think the liberal movement is in rapid decline.  Just like stock prices, the operational mode is stair steps up, elevator down.  In other words, the liberal agenda and the liberal machine, being based on consumption rather than production, is always a house of cards waiting for a still wind to come along.

Again, I am going against the common wisdom on this one as you can read in the article.  Everyone in Ferguson believes that there will be no indictment.  Time will tell.

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