Metals are entering a short period of no man's land

One of the most difficult places to discern the correct EW model is at potential bottoming points.  Take the case of silver right now.  After a short rally we have a vague chart to contend with.  It could either be 1-2-3-4-5 per the blue numbering system and the blue model prediction line or it could be a-b-c per the red numbers and the red model prediction line.

In both cases I expect a down turn very soon.  In the blue case, the pullback should go to the prior 4th.  We have a very clear triangle in this picture so that is likely the 4th wave in the blue case.  Thus, the blue case would pull back to the 61.8 fib before turning around and heading up into a 3rd wave.

In the red case, the triangle would be the b wave (triangles are always the penultimate wave).  I hate to say it, but the red case is looking like the higher odds play here.  It's c wave is stronger than its a wave.  Within the c wave, 1-2 are parallel to 2-4.   This is a pretty well formed a-b-c.

In contrast, the 1-2-3-4-5 (motive wave) case struggles with the fact that 1-3 is not parallel to 2-4.  That does not mean that the market could choose that path; the way is open for it to occur.  But the more well formed a wave is, the higher the confidence should be that the herd is heading down that path.  As usual, we will know by price levels.  After dipping (which is expected in both cases), a rise to a higher high ($19.80 or better) will confirm the blue path.  A fall below 18.20 strongly supports the red path.

I personally hope it goes a lot lower.  I would like to buy more silver and gold below the current cost of production for my retirement account.  The lower the price goes, the more I will buy.  This is like accumulating solar when it was in the toilet (although metals and miners are not nearly the same extreme as solar was - at least not yet).  It would not surprise me to have to see some kind of "news" to occur that would credibly support higher metals prices even though people these days have less and less cash for retirement savings.  After all, if people are living hand to mouth, who is it that has any spare cash to convert to long term savings in metals? 

At the same time, technology constantly raises the bar on the minimum living standard.  Back in the great depression people were eating dirt.  Unemployed folks had to stand in line in the cold for food.  The modern version of this is a good deal less inhumane due to copious transfer payments from workers to non-workers in the form of never ending unemployment benefits and SNAP food assistance cards.  Now, instead of standing in lines for food, poor people stand in line at Wal-Mart on Black Friday in order to get a deal they never could have gotten otherwise.

As soon as we work through the economic excesses of the past 20 years (and it could take some time), things will cycle up again.  When that happens, metals and miners are sure to lead the way.  When, not if.  Those with long term dollar cost averaging programs will be winners in this.