Apple chart ripe for reversal

Late last week I read some commentary about APPL shares which sounded like "peak talk".  In other words, the kinds of things you hear when it is time to sell.  The author of it (which I can't find the link for) said something to the effect "the bears are taking a beating on AAPL".  It makes me even more sure of my recent opinion that AAPL shares are about to begin another wave down.  The chart from that link is updated below with the lower support line for these shares.  The blue circles showed all the places on the way up that the line served as support.  Then, after the peak the shares broke below that line and are now finishing up an obvious back test from below.  I strongly believe that support has now turned into resistance and the AAPL is ready for a significant pull back.

Here's a close up of the recent bounce.  This is a corrective wave, not a motive one.  AAPL shares are still in a bear market.  Nothing goes straight up or straight down.  A break down below the lower support line at around $520 is eminent (90+% confidence).   By the way, this model is best case.  It models wave A down as already having happened.  But that could turn out to have really been wave 4 with this wave below a failed 5th.  There is some evidence for this as the diagonal so far seems to be made of 5 wave motive sequences, not 3 as one might expect a normal diagonal to play out.  A failed 5th scenario would be even more brutal to AAPL paper fantasy (share) holders than a C wave playout from here.

Bottom line: bearish on AAPL.  (12-16 update @7:41am): Meant to say before that bearishness depends on confirmation (as it always does in an ending diagonal).  If it breaks the lower rail of the ending diagonal then that is the first confirmation of bearishness.