Apple is ready to skyrocket, right????

Hold on there, not so fast.  I am anything but convinced about that.  In fact, I think there is a good chance that the shares are near a significant resistance point which, if it peters out here, will spell significant weakness for the over bloated shares over at least the next 6 months.  The current apple chart (below) seems to value Apple as if it were still the only player in ultra-mobile computing.  The truth is far from this.  Samsung is creating very competitive products in the smart phone and tablet space - every bit as good as Apple's if you ask me.  And Samsung benefits from an open source OS which is still being actively developed by Google.  The recent patent court decision against Samsung did not result in an injunction in terms of shipping which is what Apple wanted - to eliminate the competition.  I suspect that AAPL shareholders were holding out hope for that outcome.   Instead, Sammy will get to pay a settlement and still ship product.  It is a blow to Sammy for sure but not a knockout punch.  Because of this I think the shares of AAPL are fundamentally overpriced, at least relative to lots of other plays out there.

I think the chart is showing us at least 3 big waves up on the left but perhaps it is really 5.  If 5 then the chart could be due for a huge retracement and the prior 4th would be the bottom of the blue circle below.  Notice how the move from the peak back down to the 50% fib looks mainly impulsive?  Because of this, I think it is just 5 waves down into A, not 5-3-5 into C.  Instead, I think it is still building B.  After bouncing at A I would naturally expect the B wave to stop somewhere around the 23.6% fib which is where it is right now (and why I'm suddenly ready to talk about AAPL again). 

The C wave could, in fact, end at the top of the blue circle as well.  This would satisfy the requirment that C is not the shortest wave, but only barely.  So if the shares turn back down here, we have to look at the character of the move down.

Is it ambling and measured or is it gapping large and crapping hard?  If it's edging toward C while building its nice 5 wave downward pattern then it will go better for the shares (bottoming at the top of the blue circle).  This is the most likely outcome right now.  But if this thing starts cliff diving here then it will be unlikely to build 5 waves of the proper size in the space allotted which could easily mean look out below (potential bottom at the lower end of the blue circle). 

One more thing here: If the chart peters out here then it will leave the chart with a very, very ugly declining double top which will favor the gap and crap/cliff diving scenario.  Of course, anyone who thinks 2014 retail sales are going to be good is not paying attention.  Increased Obamacare premiums are going to eat into what used to be a discretionary retail budget.  People only have so much money to spend and if Obama is sticking a gun in their side and extorting Obamatax payments then there will be that much less available for smart phones and tablet gadgets.
I also wanted to call attention to the structure of the B wave as I have it modeled above.  It has just finished 5 rail bumps and is now smack dab up against the 23.6 fib.  It could still break out and do a small throwover to perhaps 580 without changing my view on this.  But if it turns around and starts to head down next week and then breaks down below the lower green support line sometime in Dec then I think the 1st half of 2014 is going to be no fun at all for AAPL shareholders.