Did Bernanke and Yellen just lose control of the 10 year treasury bond rate?

Uh Oh.  Per my last post on TNX  (direct link to chart) I was thinking that treasuries had one move move to the bottom of the ending diagonal before springing up strongly around May of 2014.  But now I have to change that view because 5 waves up have just formed in TNX.  In the chart below, the most recent chart (within the red circle) just made a higher high than the 3rd wave to the left.  5 waves up cannot be some internal wave of a triangle.  I am thus compelled to change the model to reflect this new reality even if it has just peeped its little head out of the sand.  This recent move was a trigger point that I cannot ignore.

I think we get a bit more in the upward direction and then the fed does something, says something, threatens something, whatever it needs to do in order to talk rates down.  The rates dutifully respond to that fed reaction and in doing so they form wave 2.  But this becomes the pause that refreshes and the rates soon take off with incredible momentum.  Sometime before August, rates finish back-testing the down sloping resistance-turned-support line.  Upon finishing this move they turn up again, but this time with much greater force.  The power of a 3rd wave is nothing to sneeze at.  In response the fed puts on a big show but the hooves of a moving herd are trampling all over Yellen's fat little bureaucratic liberal face.  In this scenario she basically gets a vote of no confidence before she can do any more damage.  They might even call Bernanke back or even that old snake Greenspan to add calm to the markets again, especially if we see big gaps up as 3rd waves are wont to do.  Crickey, they could even call Herr Volcker back to try to talk the herd down.

Go long TNX on the pullback and use a break back into the diagonal as a sell trigger.  I don't think rates are going back down now.  I think:

• They are handing the reins of the fed to Yellen so that she can be a disposable fed chair.
• Greenspan ruined the economy and Bernanke ruined the fed.  A balance sheet of 4 trillion today will plummet in market value as interest rates rise.
• The markets absolutely require fed participation in order to stay afloat.  I think the fed is darned near out of ammo to throw at any sudden downturn.  This is when the herd is most dangerous.  This is the time that many market participants have been patiently awaiting.  This is when they start to use Bernanke's own leverage tools against him.

Yes, this is a heck of a lot of speculation!  But after the last fed speech where Bernanke said he would keep rates low for a long time, this would be the perfect time for the market to make an ass of him, just like it did of Greenspan.  If I even got 50% of that right then things are about to get ugly in the markets.