Tuesday, December 31, 2013

DRYS most likely getting ready for dramatic downdraft

I think the DRYS pullback is just getting started.  After throwing over it crashed back into the channel.  While anything is possible, this does look to me like an attempt to break back through from below.  IF it cannot break out (and I suspect it will not be able to do so) then it will most likely be wave 2 of a breakdown that is predicted by the EW model.  As in wave 2 of a 5-3-5 breakdown all the way back to the level of the prior 4th wave.  We are talking big percentage moves up and down here so a lot of something for nothing coin can be made with just a few bucks on these little fast movers IFF you can call them right.  Of course that's that trick isn't it? 

Predicting the short term moves the herd is never easy.  Of late I have hit quite a few correct predictions with BBRY, DRYS, AA, TSLA, JCP and others.  But the predictions themselves seem to follow the EW rules as well!  You get on a hot streak in a wave 1, then you can't seem to find your a$$ with both hands in a wave 2 then you get EVERYTHING right in wave 3, then you cool off again in wave 5 and finally have some more success in wave 5.  Just when you think you've finally got the world by the tail, you get whacked with a massive a-b-c to the prior 4th just as you've gone "all in" on your recent successes. 

I've seen it will all the traders I follow which is why I put "stock" in the concept of "the hot hand".  I don't know what universal mechanism drives this, only that I have seen it many times in my trading career.  I've also noted that pride certainly does goeth before a fall.  So at this point I do it for fun mostly with an occasional small bet here and there to keep it interesting.  I know it's gambling, not investing.  And it's certainly not saving.  My gold and silver are my retirement savings.  They are as sure a thing as you can get in this corrupt world over the long run.

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