Predicting the short term moves the herd is never easy. Of late I have hit quite a few correct predictions with BBRY, DRYS, AA, TSLA, JCP and others. But the predictions themselves seem to follow the EW rules as well! You get on a hot streak in a wave 1, then you can't seem to find your a$$ with both hands in a wave 2 then you get EVERYTHING right in wave 3, then you cool off again in wave 5 and finally have some more success in wave 5. Just when you think you've finally got the world by the tail, you get whacked with a massive a-b-c to the prior 4th just as you've gone "all in" on your recent successes.
I've seen it will all the traders I follow which is why I put "stock" in the concept of "the hot hand". I don't know what universal mechanism drives this, only that I have seen it many times in my trading career. I've also noted that pride certainly does goeth before a fall. So at this point I do it for fun mostly with an occasional small bet here and there to keep it interesting. I know it's gambling, not investing. And it's certainly not saving. My gold and silver are my retirement savings. They are as sure a thing as you can get in this corrupt world over the long run.
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