[DRD] update

My DRD model at the backlink was followed exceptionally well and that is potential evidence that M+M are about to take flight.  Here is the model from that post




The current snapshot is slightly compressed on the horizontal scale (60 minute bars vs 30) but the pattern should be clear:   DRD went back down to the 61.8 fib in order to retrace wave 1 up and to fill that gap (which was the essence of the model).  If my model continues to be correct, the next wave up should be a powerful 3rd wave and I think we will see gaps up in DRD because we saw them in 3 of 1.

I model DRD to rise to $8-$10 by the end of the year, worse case.  Yes, I know it seems impossible but it is still LIKELY going to happen even if EWI is right about gold working on a large "B" wave instead of being in a new long term bull market like Avi thinks.  The reason is that the past chart has a significant impact on how the chart will fare in the future.  The likely bounce range for these shares is $8-$22 per the pink box.  DRD  has just now, I believe, unwound its mania that began in Nov 2001.  It is very common to see a stock like this get a massive bounce after doing this.  In the case of DRD, it has just got its new, more efficient gold collection process in place and when the price of gold goes up to allow it, they will be paying out  large chunk of their earnings in the form of dividends.  This is going to get the attention of dividend investors folks.

One more thing: the perfect time to buy into a stock is right after you think wave 2 is finished and there are two reasons for this.  First, you have two good waves that look like motive followed by corrective.  If the correction keeps coming you will easily know the trigger points for stopping out. In this case, it closed today at $1.96 and the stop is $1.91.  So all you risk is a nickel (~2.5%) for huge potential upside.  These are the kinds of low risk, asymmetric payout bets that can pad your wallet quickly.  I'm not saying this can't go a bit lower.  I am saying that it is not likely to do so given the wave count and that if it does it should not drag you down with it if you play your cards smart.  This is light years different than "faith based investing" or gut feel investing which most people do.  Talk about bringing a gun to a knife fight...

The coming collapse of the two tier legal system.

As a long awaited sign of the end times for the debt Ponzi I have been looking for evidence that badged centurions of the police state, who are so used to just physically hurting people left and right without the herd hardly caring a whit, are now being called to account for their actions.  And not just via public knowledge of the act with an apology or being fired.  No, folks, my thesis was that cops would start getting charged with criminal acts - something that was almost unheard of (or un-herd of if you prefer ;  ) when I first began writing it.

Cops slam people to the ground all the time for every imagined slight.  Don't react immediately like you were a new recruit at boot camp in front of the drill sergeant??  WHAM, down to the ground you go and you are damned lucky if it isn't face first into the concrete bench like this lady.  It's such a regular thing that finding video is too easy. 

If you think that being elderly will protect you from harsh physical police treatment, watch this old lady take a face plant to the pavement.   You can hear this other old lady's head crack on the pavement like an egg.  If you think it's all just a series of unfortunate accidents then watch this small lady get face slammed to the pavement so hard that she later died of her injuries.  Oh, the cops that did it "fist bumped" right after doing it. 

OK, those are grown adults.  The cops would never purposely slam a minor like that, right?   Um, wrong.  Check this out.  Of course, if the person is handcuffed and unable to stop their own fall, that should matter, right?  No, not even a little bit.  This girl died as a result of the head slam she received to the pavement because of being tasered while handcuffed. Note: back then the FDLE ruled that the death of that girl in that manner was "justified".  They should be glad it wasn't my daughter.  Their self justification would not have saved them from real justice.

I could go on and on but it's very obvious that the police don't give two shits about human life or human suffering because they are never held accountable.  Faced with a two level justice system, they begin to feel superior.  They begin to feel like they have power, can do and say anything they want to and just get away with it.  What they didn't realize is that the herd was ALLOWING them to get away with it and when the herd stops giving its quiet consent, the game is over.

 Today's news is more evidence that the game is ending. The cops involved with the needless slam-down of an older man are now being charged with assault.  Furthermore, they are getting slapped with a civil suit for racism and of course since the mood is now turning against these thugs, the FBI wants a piece of their ass too.  All I can say is that this should come as no surprise to anyone.  Police will begin to be charged with murder soon.  Watch and see, it is literally assured at this point.  If the herd can decide to ruin a rich and powerful elite like Bill Cosby for his misdeeds then it can darned sure ruin a few dozen cops that need a good ruining.  An example, a message, is now being sent to all police: the herd is no longer just going to take it.  One way or another, police are going to rein themselves in or the people will do it for them.

[AAPL] update

I am sticking with the backlink model at this point and am slightly modifying the top part of my count based on recent data.  This is going to end badly for those piling into AAPL shares at these levels.

The case below is best case for AAPL longs.  The chart does not have to throw over, just kissing it is good enough as long as a good wave count can be had.  Each of these large internal waves of the expanding wedge need to count as a-b-c/5-3-5.  If we got a small but visible pink 4 as shown and then one more good thrust to higher highs then I think that would do it.

[JPM] update

JPM put in 5 waves down and I suspect that this recentl top rail bump is probably the end of a deep vee 2.  If this is the case we should expect a rapid and dramatic break below that lower orange rail.  For those who fancy near term options, this is the setup you should be looking at.  The June 2015 $50 puts are $0.38 at the bid, $0.40 at the ask, last of $0.39.  Can you imagine what a sudden break down through the lower rail would do to those?

For the record, this is something I would make a speculative buy of trying to catch the very top of the chart but if it broke upward above the top rail I would head for the door pretty quickly.

If this is about to head down into a 3rd wave then $50 could get taken out pretty quickly folks... well before June expiry.

[HPQ] at critical juncture

The market did not like HP's earnings today and it is down 10% in the extended trade.  It is now sitting at the lower parallel rail.  So we are either now looking at a large a-b-c or 1-2-3.  Any move above 37.60 cinches another move up to wave 5 for the bulls. But if this selling extends into the next few days and shows 5 large waves down then something bad this way comes.  The markets could roll over the edge at any time.  They are all held up with leverage and hot air.

To his credit Robert Shiller is now sounding the alarm on US stocks, just like he did last time before they fell over on their side.  Notice also what the article attributes to him.  It says: "Shiller told CNBC that people need to concentrate more on saving more money for retirement rather than trying to chase above-average returns."  But this sounds to most people like double talk because isn't the stock market supposed to be a savings vehicle for retirement???

AH-HA!

Of course it isn't.  The market is a speculation vehicle, a big gambling pit not a savings vehicle and Shiller seems to know it.  Don't think Shiller's words are falling on deaf ears.  The herd is listening to all of it even if it seems indifferent.  When the time is right, the herd will just begin to move in unison, just like a flock of starlings turning in the sky.

[HUI] update

In the backlink I provided a model that showed HUI must turn upward immediately else it would confirm that everything since its Nov low was an a-b-c move.  HUI held onto that technical support level by a hair and has now begun to climb again.  As long as it stays in the channel and does not violate any key near term support levels, it looks like the next big wave up is now under way.

That red line should be your stop and a fall below the lower parallel rail should really concern you.  If HUI can't hold these key support levels then all M+M become suspect.

Zooming in, we can see that HUI is at a critical juncture.  Right now, the red path is my primary model with target price of $245 to the top of the channel.  It could also stall mid channel at $216 where 5 would = wave 1.  In Prechter's model, the eventual target should be in the $260 range just to get to the level of the prior 4th and 23.6 fib.  But I really would expect something more along the lines of the 38.2% fib at $333.68 before the gold rally is over as long as the key technical support hold.

[USO] likely breaking out.

In a backlink I provided the model shown below.


Current snapshot is slightly different but essentially the same.  Stops at $18.10.