Wednesday, October 23, 2019

Government is now becoming business hostile [FB]

Everywhere I look I now see the government stepping in to make up charges against their corporate buddies and they are not playing around.  Someone has to pander to the withering public.  Facebook is now in the sights of the bureaucrats.  Also, suddenly legal drug dealing now seems to matter.  Pharma giants are having to pay tens of billions in fines for having profited from hundreds of billions in completely unnecessary opioid sales and their paid pushers are getting huge jail time.  Of course the fines are hand slaps and those going to jail are scapegoats but it does mean the activity will have the legs cut out of it going forward.   That's real corporate revenue that will collapse.  How will they buy back their shares if their revenue collapses?

None of this news is new, but now it's plastered across the headlines of the popular financial sites.  You can say its being done on purpose or you can say that the media is simply reflecting the mood of the herd.  But when take in conjunction with so many peaking charts it does suggest that the doors to the elevator shaft have opened for the stock markets. 

By the way, why would anyone want to crash the markets on purpose?  Well let's say the opposition is in power and he's slowly dismantling your power structure.  The one area where everyone says Trump is weak is in owning the stock market bubble as a core metric of the efficacy of his administration.  If there were a big market downturn going into Nov of next year, many say Trump would be 1 and done.
 
But I'm not so sure about that.  They tried to throw the kitchen sink at him 4-5 times but somehow this Teflon Don seems to absorb the impact and the counter punch is severe.  After all the leftist noise about Trump collusion with Russia, it all ended up looking like it was run by hillary as a smear job.  Even moderate dems can see that, as much as they wish it were not true.    And after all the noise about Ukraine, creepy uncle joe was caught on camera clearly admitting to withholding a loan guarantee of $1bn if Ukraine didn't fire the prosecutor going after the company who had put Biden's son on the board so that they could invoke Biden as protection.  Nothing happened to Trump but Biden's son had to step down.  There is a repeating pattern here.  History will refer to him as Teflon Trump, the Teflon "Don" president.  The one who had a ton of shit flung at him but none of it would stick.

Without the status quo there to prop things up, the big money could easily become afraid just like it did in 2008 and pull out quickly.  What guarantees and promises can the deep state pile on this time in order to restore confidence to the con?  Each time they need something, Trump will make them pay for it even if he needs it as well because they stand to lose more.  Also, the global response in 2009 is not going to happen this time.  Not with everyone in trade wars.  It's lack of global "coherency" (elite key word) that is the real risk of these trade wars, not the tariffs themselves.  The trade wars simply give Trump the political cover he would need to be very selective about what responses he takes.

Bottom line is that the mood of the herd continues to look very peaky and I suspect we will see rough waters ahead in the age of turbulence.

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