Netflix update: bottom channel support bounce

Here's the back link to my last Netflix post.  The basic thesis was that trouble was brewing because an ending diagonal had just ended with a throw over and then first confirmation of breakdown happened as the chart broke back down into the channel.

Fast forward to today and we see that the chart tanked to the bottom of the channel before predictably bouncing.  The bounce looks like a classic 2nd wave vee bounce in 3 small wave with the C wave even showing gaps up.  I think there is a 90% chance that this is a dead cat bounce and that the chart will peter out, unable to break through the down sloping green resistance line that it is currently butting up against.  If that fails as my model suggests then the next move will likely be a violent down ward 3rd wave motive thrust that breaks the lower support.  Again, I would expect that such a break down cannot occur on a 1st wave.  It usually takes the power of a 3rd wave to break down long standing support.

We will know the answer by the end of this week or perhaps early next week but I will say this: the stock market looks like it is pricing in something a lot more negative than today's headlines which are that Boehner is a pussy who is going to cave.  Not that Boehner isn't a pussy.  He is.  But caving will likely not be the end of the story.  It might be the end of Boehner's political career and it might lead to someone more honest taking over for the republicans (and thus more scary to a corruption pumped stock market). 

Of course nobody knows for sure.  I'm just speculating that too many stocks look like they are about to collapse for there not to be something more going on than meets the eye.  The whole S+P 500 index is showing great technical weakness IMO.  Time will tell and it should begin to play out pretty soon.  Days or weeks, not months IMO.