Wednesday, October 9, 2013

Intel stock collapse update redux

Here is the previous link in my Intelligeddon series.  You might want to quickly review it.  The basic summary is that Intel stock is going down hard IMO.  Let's look at the latest chart below.  As you can see, I model big 1 and big 2 as being complete.  I also suspect that it will take the power of a 3rd wave and likely a 3rd of a 3rd to break down the long standing support line (red inclining line).  The break down of this kind of support line is usually rather violent and generally helps me in forming my wave counts.  Find the big gap up or down and you likely found a 3rd wave or even a 3rd of a 3rd as I think we are about to see for Intel.  It might get one more small bounce off of the support line but then I think it is going to come crashing through on high volume.

When you see Intel break down like that, think to yourself this one thought: it's all one market.  This is the Prechter manta that says all stocks will go down at the same time in a deflationary crash.  Basically, everyone is leveraged up big time right now.  When some of their stocks go down they have to sell the good ones in order to pay the margin call on the losers.  Thus, IBM, JNJ and other big name blue chips go down with the less solid stocks.  That's the theory.

Prechter also thinks gold and silver would go down as well in that case.  I'm not convinced of that since gold is cash but if everyone is leveraged to the hilt they might have to spend their cash to pay the margin calls.  Others like Mish think gold goes up in a deflationary event.  You have to keep your wealth somewhere so I am currently 80% gold and silver and 20% crash, just in case Prechter is right.   20% cash will buy a good deal of gold if it goes down with all other asset classes.  Since I have no leverage there will be no panic selling by me, only sniper buying over time.



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