[IBM]: ready for short term bounce (OR ELSE)

Here's the backlink to the full IBM series but the bottom line is that my IBM EW model is holding true.  The shares have now hit the bottom rail as expected and this happened as an ending diagonal formed with a throw under that was just powerful enough to hit the support line.

As you can see from the snapshot below, the shares are now upward-testing the bottom resistance line of the ending diagonal from below.  This is a critical short term direction test.  If the chart can break back up into the channel of the diagonal then chances are it will run all the way back up to the $205-$215 range before it really rolls over.  That would be the 5th wave up of this big move which began all the way back in 2002.  I think that 5th will be a failed 5th and will form a declining double top as show in the EW model I provided in this post.

However, if the chart cannot hold this lower support then I see bad things for IBM shares happening real soon.  It must hold the support within the blue oblong in order to have enough confidence for one more final run, like a fish paying out line as the market begins to reel it back in.  Again, the charts are telling me that it will get one last hurrah to above $200 before rolling over and eventually finding my target price of $70 within 24 months. Nobody would say this is very likely now because people look at BS short term metrics like PB, PE, etc.  These are just sales tools for Wall St stock peddlers.  The value of shares is mainly controlled by the confidence of the herd.