After nice 1st wave up, Alcoa ready for a breather [AA]

Here's the back link to the post thread.  Today I think that AA is either finishing 5 of 1 OR 1 of 5 of 1.  If 5 of 1 is now finishing (most likely scenario), it;s time for a pullback to the 38.2 or the 50% fib.  Probably not the 61.8 fib in this case.

If it is only finishing 1 of 5 of 1 then we have 2 of 5 of 1, 3 of 5 of 1, 4 of 5 of 1 and 5 of 5 of 1 still before us before the pullback begins.  While this is possible, I think the large odds support the first scenario. I think the little right pointing tit within the red circle is an ending diagonal forming a failed 5 on 5 of 5 of 5.  It will likely leave us with a declining double top that breaks down into an a-b-c retracement.  This is fully expected after such a nice 3rd wave run which was good for a 22% increase in the price of the stock.

Of course, traders will set trigger points to test the model.   If a trigger is broken it will either confirm or invalidate the model.  The triggers can be tight in this case and the red circle is about correct for these triggers.  If this apparent ending diagonal creates a new high then it might be a wrong call.  If it begins to break down below the red circle then it is likely the right call.  Odds, not guarantees folks.  If everything were 100% then everyone would be billionaires.