Sunday, September 24, 2017

Planning a road trip? Wait until early to mid 2018 [/RB]

How can Elliott waves help you other than by allowing you to speculate in the markets?  Clearly, the value of having advance insight as to what prices of various things could likely be in the future extends to many markets beyond stocks, bonds and other assets.  For example, I am on record in these pages as timing the purchase of my first and second sets of solar panels based on nothing more than the wave count of the solar industry.  Low valuations for solar companies mean hard times due to no pricing power.  That's swooping time for consumers who have the money at the right time.

So as another teaser for my paid service, I want to provide my model based view of gas prices going into 2018.  Because we are likely finishing a 4th wave horizontal triangle right now I expect gas prices to re-test their 2016 low at least.  Mid channel is now $1 for /RB (RBOB Oct 2017 Gasoline Futures).  Mid channel is the first likely support.  However, we could also see a rapid collapse down to 0.5 per the blue before this chart catches a bid mid next year.

I will be using this information to help me plan the move of my boat from Virginia down to the Bahamas.  The boat is a gas hog and just the fuel bill is expected to be in the $6000 range at today's prices.  We are working like crazy to complete the refit and we hope to be done by 1Q 2018, 2Q at the latest.  We could let this drag out another few months into late 2018 but I will be pushing for completion in order to intercept the dip in gas prices that my models indicate is coming.  Time will tell if the model plays out but if we see a gap down below the lower rail as the model suspect will happen then the odds will look good for an early to mid 2018 low in gas prices. 

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