The TNX chart is now in major bottoming range: generational bottom here. Watch: the fed says it will cut rates 50 bp in order to fight coronavirus. Very soon my model predicts that the fed will lose control of the bond market. The fed will say, "I want lower rates". The market will say, "too bad". The market is faaar bigger than the fed and so the market will win.
Now is coming the time when people figure out that the federal reserve is nothing but a big con game. When the markets do the opposite of what the fed is saying then you will know it is happening.
If rates begin going up rapidly like I predict they will, markets will begin getting massive margin calls and trillions in derivatives could blow up in people's faces, literally over night.
No Ponzi ever lasted forever and it won't be different this time.
Wednesday, March 4, 2020
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