For years I have been observing two different wave counts that from Elliott Wave International and that from Avi Gilbert of elliottwavetrader.net. For a long time Avi's count has been in the lead. Currently it is still the most likely. Avi's count expects stocks to bottom somewhere betwen SPX 1800 and SPX 2200. We are getting close to the top end of that range right now.
If Avi's count turns out to be right then the current bottom is a 4th wave and stocks will bottom and then move up for another 2-3 years before hitting wave 5 after which Avi sounds like EWI.
But if EWI's count is right then the stockmageddon has already begun.
Please note how neither of these counts ends well. It's only a question of when.
Peter Schiff thinks the big collapse is upon us and many others do too but for now we likely just bottomed in wave 3, will get a small rally to wave 4 and then down another wave into wave 5. That would be 5 of C of 4.
EWI's model says we could collapse below Dow 4000. Actually he says Dow 400 is possible. I know, sounds crazy but crazy things are happening right now. But stocks aside, it's time to plan for the worst and hope for the best because if the collapse isn't already upon us, its coming soon enough.
No Ponzi scheme ever lasted forever and no, it won't be different this time.
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Economati discusses the current economic and political issues which are most likely to impact the people of the world.
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- [IBM] update
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- Monkeys in Thailand are no different than Americans.
- Gun bans are a joke, and here is why
- As expected, Warren leaves presidential race
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- Time to pay attention folks. [TNX]
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- Oprah explains her view of "balance"
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March
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Blog Archive
-
▼
2020
(267)
-
▼
March
(17)
- Trump declares war on creditors to the USA
- TX gov Abbott laughs in the face of leftists, sidi...
- Never let a good crisis go to waste
- Fed throws bazooka, tank, squadron of F-35s and ki...
- Recent government actions are a warning to every t...
- [IBM] update
- EWI vs Avi
- Can't pay bills? No worry, here is free money.
- Monkeys in Thailand are no different than Americans.
- Gun bans are a joke, and here is why
- As expected, Warren leaves presidential race
- Statesmanship civility is out the window
- Time to pay attention folks. [TNX]
- Weaponizing refugees
- So cool...
- Trump signs peace deal with Taliban
- Oprah explains her view of "balance"
-
▼
March
(17)
4 comments:
I haven't really been following the market as a whole. Was December 2018 to February 2020 just a really big Wave B of an expanded flat correction? I don't see how the big drop could be upon us already. And I don't think Peter Schiff even knows Elliott Wave.
"Was December 2018 to February 2020 just a really big Wave B of an expanded flat correction?"
For which chart. We are talking about IBM here. For IBM the expanded flat was 2013 until now. Red a-b-c.
And no, Schiff, Roubini, Dent don't know anything about EW. Which is why I called them out specifically here since all of them think the end of the GDP is already upon us.
Oh sorry, I just finished a post on IBM and thought you were referring to it. For SPX, yes, it counts as a 3-3-5 expanded flat from ~10/2018 until now.
So if we get 5 down from 2-21 into April then it should be over. If we then get a 3 wave bounce and then a lower low, Avi is wrong and EWI is right and then I will be freaking out too.
Not really freaking out because most of my preps are complete but I will have to put my metals purchases into high gear because I want more. The platinum chart is very close to a bottom or already bottomed in its expanding wedge.
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