A debt Ponzi is where current prosperity is being purchased using debt and then acting like it's prosperous because we are so productive. The energy source of this current prosperity is not hard work, smart work, or smart, hard work. It's debt. This game is very long in the tooth because much of the world is in negative interest rates with trillions in debt. It turns out banks can't make money with negative interest rates and so they are starting to pass their costs along. As these costs hit depositors, many will decide that the price of keeping money in banks is too high and so they will take their money out and put in other things, including metals. But that is the kiss of death for banks because it has the same effect as a run on the banks; capital flight is capital flight no matter the underlying reason. And bank deposits are needed in order to backstop the fractionally reserved loans that banks have made.
At the end of the day it will be what I have named condominium economics. In condo economics the condo developers have fixed costs that they want to amortize over those who have not walked away from their condos yet. But doing so prices more and more condo owners out of the market, thus exacerbating the problem. Same thing for the banks. As banks cannot make money in a negative interest rate environment they begin taxing depositors in order to make up the difference. The more that leave means costs have to go up on those who remain.
At the start of the debt Ponzi, a dollar of new debt would buy several dollars of GDP. But now, listen to Jeff Gundlach tell us in clear terms that debt is going up faster than the GDP. So we are now officially past the point of diminishing returns and we are now in a situation of NEGATIVE returns. I mean think about it. If I have to spend a trillion dollars to get $500bn in GDP growth then why not just hand $500bn to the people to spend and save $500 bn in debt. This would actually create the same GDP growth because we stupidly believe that consumption is how to measure GDP. Am I the only one who thinks measuring production in terms of consumption is a total scam? Sure, classical economics say there can be no consumption without production but of course reality shows that there can be, at least for a time, as long as the consumption is borrowed from another producer. And that is just what is going on here.
IF you are not worried about this then there is nothing I can do for you but it does mean you are an idiot who could not be saved even when things are broken down into the most basic languages that a 15 year old should be able to understand. Don't just sit there while this economic meteor approaches. DO SOMETHING to prepare. Now is the time. All the data is right in front of you. What in heck are you waiting for?
Sunday, December 8, 2019
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