Monday, September 2, 2019

Lebanon economy about to go into freefall

Another marginal player is getting hit now.  Lebanon government just declared a state of economic emergency.

What does this mean?  Well, if you cut through all of the noise, liberal government has been trying to stay in power by providing bread and circus, with the bread paid for using debt.  When you use debt to keep up a standard of living today, it is simply pulling forward consumption from the future.  In other words, the point will come where you simply cannot charge up the credit card anymore.  You would if you could because you know at that point you are trapped, but the credit card company has cut you off.

This is when the freefall begins because you not only have to pay for today's consumption, but also for service on the debt of consumption of years past which you put on the card.  There is no soft landing from this and it does not happen slowly.  No Ponzi collapses slowly.  It won't be different for Lebanon and when the US loses its ability to take on more debt cheaply, it won't be different for us either.

Eventually the size of government will collapse because it is an unsustainable liberal bubble.  Too many useless fucks are sucking at the teat of debt based consumption and this is completely unsustainable.  As you can see, the Lebanon government has conceded this.  Two things will happen:
1) pensions will be defaulted on. No way will the government be able to demand more taxes from the non-government work force in order to support lush retirements for government teat suckers.  The bill for government pensions is coming due and nobody will want to pay, so the government employees, who thought they had some special protected status, will get stiffed.
2) the pension system will be eliminated and government employees will be forced to save for retirement like everyone else. 

The model will be similar everywhere. What cannot be paid will not be paid.  No liberal government worker is going to double my taxes in order for them to get a fat retirement that I myself will not get.

"Hariri added that employment in the public sector will be frozen and work will begin for a new retirement system. He said officials will work on reducing the percentage of the debt through partnership between the public and private sectors."

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