Saturday, October 6, 2018

Money losing IPOs are a sign of impending market top

According to Austrian economists of the past 100+ years, much of the excess government created debt money rattling around in the economy ends up being used for malinvestment.  In other words,it is wasted in a very liberal fashion.  Conservatives do not like to waste; Waste not today, want not for things tomorrow.  This conservative mantra is essentially a nod to the cyclical nature of things.  True conservatives know that the future is uncertain and that if they store away some of their excess income during the good times, pay off their debt and perhaps otherwise prepare, when the lean times they will not be begging in the streets for the charity of others.  It's essentially a big picture view.  The liberal mantras is "get a dollar?  spend two!".  Thus liberals live a boom and bust existence and conservatives live more a more steady and stable existence.  And this doesn't just apply to money.  That's because liberals have a small picture view.  Whatever is happening right now is the most important thing, ever.  So live big for now and discount or even forget about the future because as that bastion of liberalness Keynes said, "in the end we are all dead".

While many many conservative aspects that I have predicted would happen are now happening, the leadership companies of the financial markets are still near all time peaks.  For example, back when I lamented the two speed legal system and asshole cops shooting people just for the Hell of it I warned them to stop because their exorbitant legal privilege was about to come crashing down.  Instead of being protected by the system, bad cops would be prosecuted and jailed by the system.  Most recently we see this happening in the case of an ex Texas cop, Rob Oliver, who was sentenced to 15 years in the slam for killing an unarmed teenager.  The article says something very telling, "Jurors found the fired Balch Springs officer guilty of murder on Tuesday, a rare outcome in cases involving police shootings of civilians.  That's right, cops are used to getting away with murder.  But the people are now revoking their get out of trouble free cards and we will see an increasing number of cops be held liable for their actions going forward.

But back to the markets.  Liberalism still abounds in the leadership names while at the same time I am warning my subscribers to run for cover and even begin to take out short positions right now.  Not because of the news but because of the wave count.  Sorry, I'm not sharing the details which my subscribers paid to see but we can see it coming soon.  But you might want to treat this WSJ article as a contrary indicator.  In it, money losing IPO companies smugly tell us that their massive losses don't matter, even as the stock market is at all time highs, because, hey, they have cash flow.  Never has more of a liberal note been struck.  The smug grin will soon disappear from old Zander Lurie's mug.

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