In this recent post I suggested that the JNK ETF was at significant resistance point and a lot hinged on its ability to break out. In that same post I reminded people that JNK is thought by some of the great technical analysts such as Bob Prechter to be a complacency indicator. Basically, JNK is full of junk bonds which pay higher interest rates but which will lose value quickly if the government ever stops propping up the economy OR (and this is the part that will catch most traders by surprise) the herd stops reacting positively to more stimulus. In other words, the theory is that stimulus will first have diminishing returns and then it will eventually have negative economic returns as increasing prices for food and necessities impact the poor people to the degree that it outweighs stock market benefits for the rich. In other word, the rich stop getting richer to the degree that enough crumbs fall off their table to support the poor who are trying to survive on the crumbs.
As long as JNK is being pumped up it means that investors have confidence that the current system of doing things will not result in a loss of confidence in the economy. As soon as that loss occurs, people will run out of risky assets like JNK and into cash (with gold and silver probably serving as cash for many people this time around). In this way, JNK is treated as a complacency indicator. The higher JNK goes, the more
If I'm right about this, the fall could be significant. If JNK is, as I believe it to be, completing a so called ending diagonal then a significant reversal, complete with so called cliff diving, gaps and massive breakdowns on high volume is in the cards.
Here is a description of ending diagonals:
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2013/01/28/Ending-Diagonal-A-Pattern-to-Send-Shivers-Down-the-Spine-of-Investors.aspx#axzz2URlACRdr
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