Monday, April 15, 2013

Killer 3rd of C move downward in gold right here

Look at my last post and you will know that this is not an unexpected move.  I didn't say I knew the timing, only that it was expected to happen sooner or later.  This is NOT the time to sell anything.  This is the time to be patient and wait for the suckers to dump their gold cheap and then just keep dollar cost averaging into physical metal held in your hot little hands at these lower prices.

Let me make a few observations about the chart below.  First, the failed 5th with declining double top spelled short term weakness for sure.  See the owl forming?  But also keep in mind that the dramatic sell offs of things of real value are not to be confused with dramatic sell offs of things of no value.  If Lexus cars suddenly became priced at $5000 each, would you turn your nose up at them when just a few weeks before you wanted one badly but didn't have the $50+k?  You have to know what has enduring value and what is a fad.  Gold has been around longer than recorded history.  That is no fad.  The fad is paper money. 

Patience is recommended here but at the rate this is dropping it could find the bottom of the C wave in a very short time.  It could be done as quickly as 1-2 trading days or even sooner.  That's how dramatic this panic sell off has become.  As a matter of fact, it is already at the 38.2 fib retracement of the move that started in July 2005. 

I think it is cool that after the failed 5th we see exactly 5 waves down into an "a" wave and then a small rally into a "b" wave and now a massive, rapid paper gold holder capitulation collapse into a 3rd of C.  Of course it can go lower and in fact a failed 5th suggests (but does not require) that the 50% fib or the 61.8% fib is more likely as a pullback target than the current 38.2% fib level.  But physical gold holders are not selling here because it takes longer than this to sell the physical metal.  This is ALL paper trading action and China has got to be loving it because it means more metal for them at cheaper prices.

I'm hoping for a really dramatic pullback -61.8% fib- because while I don't suggest to others to market time, that's the main reason I have taken up Elliott wave chart analysis.  Personally, I don't think it will pull back that far.  If someone had no gold at all I would tell them to buy 1/3 of their intended dollar value purchase right here and now and then wait.  If this turns out to be the bottom then they got a good buy price.  If it goes down further they still have 66% of their buying power and they can average down nicely.

All I know is that when this happens to a stock you have to wonder if it is going to go bankrupt and lose all your money for you.  But when it happens to gold, it's just giving you a better buy price.  Gold will never be worthless.  It cannot go bankrupt like pretty much everything else can.


1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Goldman Sachs recommended shorting Au last week, I suspect because they wanted to crash its price in order to get in. It is a matter of public record from congressional hearings that they advise their clients and the world to do something so that they can profit from the doing the opposite.

However, though dishonest, they're not stupid. Fiat money will crash and burn, starting with the euro, leaving behind only real money: Au. Then, when Goldman Sachs says to short gold, we should understand that they are going long on gold. So why not follow their lead and watch for local minimums in the price of Au to get some bullion as well?

We may not be sharks like Goldman Sachs, but we can tag along like pilot fish.

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