Sunday, April 28, 2013

Fast and furious: metals collapse has taken near term risk out of metals purchases

There is a lot of common sense in this Seeking Alpha article:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1378651-gold-and-silver-speculator-long-positions-wiped-out

The main 2 points I took away were that metals could well "back and fill" during the historically slow summer months in the metals markets.  Back and fill is trader talk for "people buying the dips" at this level. 

Everyone's eyes are now on the metals markets.  By crashing the way they did, all it did was draw more attention to them.  Could they go lower?  Sure.  But now comes the second take away from the article and that is that we just saw "capitulation" style volume on the metals.  In other words, panic selling of leveraged positions as can be seen from the chart below.  In other words, any weak (AKA leveraged) hands that had to sell did so.   Now, that could have been the 3rd of C Elliott wave retracement (big gap down!) and perhaps the big bounce since is a 4th wave.  But in my experience, the 3rd wave is where you usually want to make your move especially when dealing with something that has real tangible value because the 5th wave can sneak by you easily.
I think good confirmation that the bottom is in will be had if gold can break through the horizontal blue line that had been support for many months, especially if it occurs with gusto and with news that the Federal Reserve is upping their stimulus in order to try to save the collapsing global debt Ponzi.

Keep in mind that the US is really Germany but on a global scale.  Germany is on top of Europe by virtue of its export capacity.  Thus when its vendor finance export scam begins to collapse, it is left with the choice of trying to prop it up or admitting that the whole idea of borrowing tons of money in order to create exports for "customers" who can only pay using debt is a massive, corrupt scam.  Thus, Germany is left trying to bail out those importers of its exports without whose presence and complicity the scam would collapse.

Likewise the US is on top of the world as a result of having fooled everyone into taking its major export (fiat currency in the form of dollars).  Thus when its funny money export scam begins to collapse, it is left with the choice of trying to prop it up or admitting that the whole idea of creating money from thin air and trading it for real goods is a massive, corrupt scam.  Thus, the US will be left with trying to bail out those importers (i.e. the world) of its exports (i.e. fake money) without whose presence and complicity the scam would collapse.

In other words, the economic woes of the world are also those of the USA.  What could likely end up being the driving factor of the death of the dollar is the printing of them in untold amounts in order to get people to stay in the corrupt dollar based global economy instead of using real money.

Keynesians always say that government should provide stimulus during hard times but then make up for it during good times.  But when the government has taken over the economy, the very definition of hard times means "government cuts back on spending".  And so it has been the case for a couple years now.  And it will continue to be the case forever more.  There will be a crash anytime the government tries to cut back on stimulus.  There is no exit plan from Helicopter Ben's Keynesian wisdom.  They knew the day would come some day but they hoped to kick the can down the road for a long time.  Unfortunately, the market is wise to them.  As soon as the government stops printing money, the markets will collapse and there will be a huge depression globally.  It will be unthinkably bad.  And so, they will continue to print because as con men and/or intellectual children, they will not know what else to do without getting dragged into the street and killed by angry mobs.

We ain't seen bad yet and I don't know when it will arrive (nobody does), but I do know it's coming.

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