Is the correction in gold nearly over?

As gold and silver have corrected, buyers of the physical metal have picked up the pace.  While that does not necessarily mean a bottom is in, it does make me wonder greatly if people believe that the paper price of gold (the COMEX spot price) is a complete joke and that gold will be very important after the global debt Ponzi collapse finally plays out.   So I cannot call a bottom here but I will give one thing for people to look at: the next likely resistance level.

Refer to the chart below. Note that on the way up, the up-sloping diagonal blue line was resistance the entire time until the big break out.  Each time the price bumped against this line it would get swatted back down, but with each smack down it would take less and less time to re-test that support line.  Then at some point it broke back up through, and then had a massive $500 run up into a big 3rd wave overbought peak. 

Now that the price is falling again, we have to figure out if this is still part of the a-b-c retracement from the big 3rd wave OR if the 4th and 5th have already played out as a failed 5th scenario.  If the former is the case, then gold already saw an expected 38.2 retracement.  The would mean a 4th wave just finished and we might now see the real 5th wave happen.  That would be bullish for the metal IMO since it would erase the failed 5th scenario (it would turn the failed 5th into a simple b wave of the a-b-c retracement of the massive 3rd that went to $185 on GLD ETF).

If, however, we just saw a failed 5th then it would require GLD to fall all the way down to $124 in order to hit a real 38.2 % retracement.  I think we will have a really good indication soon.  When retesting important levels (such as the 38.2% fib of the 3rd wave) from below,  if the chart cannot break back through "with gusto" then the failed 5th scenario is more likely.  The top of the blue box show that important technical resistance level.

I personally hope that gold goes way down from here because it will give a lot more people the chance to load up for retirement at what I still consider to be low prices.  I do not believe that gold will stay low for very long.  Not with every single country in the world printing up untold amounts of money in order to stave off economic crises, collapse of their banks, etc. 

As usual, I want to tell people that market timing is difficult even for the most informed people out there.  Nobody is always right or they would be the richest people in the world.  The best bet on gold and silver is not to bet at all.  Simply dollar cost average your retirement savings in over many years.  Sometimes you will buy the peak, sometimes the dip.  But when retirement arrives you will definitely have savings whereas people who trust all of their retirement wealth to pensions and Wall St and government-controlled 401ks will find that they will be robbed in broad daylight simply because the government needs the money and you have the ability to pay.  But there is no way to wealth-tax physical gold and silver holders.