In bull markets, the big players have a ton of cash from operations which they use to buy everything in sight. So why is Yahoo news reporting that Exxon is selling $25 bn in assets into this strength? The article says it wants to "sharpen its focus" but that's a bunch of bullshit. This is a retreat from Europe. "The expanded plan will see Exxon effectively quitting its upstream oil
and gas operations in Europe, where it has been present for over 120
years". You don't just make major changes like this for no good reason. This is what I would do if I saw war coming and thought it was inevitable.
At the same time, we have seen MANY big name elite leaving their corporate positions for no stated reason. Again this is not something you ever see when times are really good.
The reasons for this are clear, and they are being clearly stated, namely that the debt is growing faster than the economy. In a debt Ponzi, debt is taken on to goose the economy. The economy reacts to all the new low cost money that is sloshing around. It looks like strength, but it's not real; it was paid for with debt and it will have to be paid back at some point. When that happens, the economy will be exactly as much weaker then as it was strengthened by the economic goosing. In other words, it is nothing more than pulling tomorrow's consumption into today.
At the start of the Ponzi, $1 of debt has a huge effect on GDP, perhaps adding $3-$5 of GDP per $1. But now in the US an additional dollar of debt does not buy a dollar of GDP. That what Powell is telling us when he says the debt is outpacing the economy. And in China I just heard that it now takes 7 Yuan of new debt in order to drive 1Yuan of GDP growth. This is end game territory that I think everyone should be understanding. The people who know how these things work are preparing for the inevitable. If you are slow on the uptake it is going to cost you dearly. Sorry for the bad news but now that you know the facts, put a plan together. I can tell you what I am doing but I have had the luxury of seeing this coming a long way off. People who are just waking up now have a much shorter time span available to them to react and to prepare.
Thursday, November 21, 2019
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