Another look at Microsoft.

In this post I indicated that MSFT shares were at a critical technical juncture.  Again, was suggesting one possible outcome but entirely noncommittal.  Since then the chart has shown me that what I thought might be the 2nd wave was in fact only wave a of 2.  The chart then did b of 2 and then finally gapped up with an exhaustion gap into c of 2.  It makes sense that this gap happened on the c wave because c waves are like 3rd waves, never the weakest.
 
The resulting chart along with my current model are shown below.  I think the chart will now kiss that support line from below and then plummet with a big gap down into a nasty 3rd wave which will lop of $5 from the price of MSFT shares in very short order.

Common people don't see it yet but MSFT is in trouble.  The recent firing of Ballmer should be warning enough.  A big company like MSFT likes to do everything in an orderly fashion so when they pull in the release of a long standing CEO by a full year, and when he himself admits to that fact publicly, something is very, very wrong.

Microsoft has gone from innovator to defender.  It's products are unnecessarily complex and in many cases provide a bunch of features that nobody wants or uses while not providing features that everyone does want.  For example, the recent Windows 8 move was completely reactionary.  Tablets are growing way faster than any other segments and so Windoze's solution is to burden everyone with tablet specific features.  DUMB!!  Removing the start button was like changing the recipe for Coke except that MSFT is not as smart or humble as Coke (who recanted and reversed that decision as soon as the public backlash was understood).

Likewise, look at Excel.  It does a million things that nobody wants and it hides and obfuscates the things that everyone wants easy and automated.  Microsoft hasn't done anything inspired or visionary in years.  Instead it has fallen back into that old monopolistic trap of just defending market share.  They have played that game well for many years but without new inspiration, something new and compelling for people to want, I think most people will stick with Windows 7 if given any choice in the matter.  MSFT shares will suffer as a result IMO and the chart suggests that the day of reckoning might be on deck.