I posted about the gold breakout yesterday and was looking for silver to bounce down and then back up and out of the channel to confirm gold's breakout. But buyers could not contain themselves and silver broke the upper channel and so I think we are now seeing 3 of 1 UPWARD play out in silver. In other words, the downtrend of the past many months in both gold and silver is very, very likely bottomed and now reversed into an uptrend. Silver is still very cheap at this level IMO.
Confirmation of the silver breakout will probably take form of a back test of the top channel line which likely has now turned from resistance into support. My current wave count is shown below. The only feature of it that I do not like is that 2 and 4 do not form a line that is parallel to 1 and 3. However, 1, 3, and 5 all bounced off the same trend line.
I'll revisit this count if the price falls back into the channel again but after such a mult-month pounding while stock shares were pushed to nosebleed levels I think the market is ready for a shift from shares into money with gold and silver increasingly being treated as cash instead of commodities.
I've been on metals bottom watch for several weeks. I think we just saw it happen.
Thursday, August 15, 2013
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