Friday, August 9, 2013

Potential technical double whammy forming

I found an interesting chart online that overlays corporate profits and the S+P 500 stock index chart.  The combination of them is a huge potential red flag to equity traders (and the computers that automatically do their bidding).  Check it out below.

Green is the S+P 500.  It is clearly a mania and very likely forming either a head and shoulders topping formation or (just as likely) an expanding triangle (which some refer to as a wizard's sleeve).  In the case of the former, the target price for the index (should a H+S breakdown be confirmed) is so low that I won't even bother writing it down.  In the case of the expanding triangle, 850 is about the right level.

What might drive such a rapid pullback is a drastic reduction in corporate profits (white chart) and the S+P 500 profits chart currently appears to be working on a 5th wave which is about the same size as its first wave.  In other words, corporate profits might be very near a 25 year peak.  If this turns out to be the case, an A-B-C retracement would be expected which would retrace to the level of the prior 4th.  That would imply a profit reduction to the level of 1996.

At some point I have little doubt that the S+P and DOW charts will both expose themselves to be manias just like the Japanese Nikkei 225 chart did over the past 30 years.  You really can't fool all of the people all of the time.

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